The numbers I used themselves are not particularly significant. The point stands even with different numbers as long as they are in the same ballpark. You’ll also recognise that the rise in the false positive rate in this hypothetical scenario is easily offset by the quadrupling of the actual prevalence of COVID and the low sensitivity of 80% — the actual figure is probably higher.

Politics nerd, policy wonk | Founder, medium.com/politics-fast-and-slow | Editor, politika.org.uk | twitter.com/dave_olsen16 | Policy Paper: https://rb.gy/7coyj

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